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General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: linux203 on April 18, 2016, 07:49:20 PM

Title: Flawed logic by researcher/professor
Post by: linux203 on April 18, 2016, 07:49:20 PM
Stumbled upon this nugget reading about Seattle's Gun Tax.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/seattles-gun-tax-still-faces-unfriendly-fire/ (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/seattles-gun-tax-still-faces-unfriendly-fire/)
Quote
Dr. Ali Rowhani-Rahbar, researcher and professor at the University of Washington School of Public Health, is spearheading the study aimed at trying to reduce gun violence by diminishing the number of repeat gunshot victims.

An April 2015 study by Rowhani-Rahbar and others found that gunshot victims who survive an initial gunshot wound are 21 times more likely to get shot again and five times more likely to die than those wounded by a weapon other than a gun or who were hurt in other kinds of accidents.

Umm... Wow...

Quote
cau·sal·i·ty
kôˈzalədē/
noun
noun: causality

    1.    the relationship between cause and effect.
    2.    the principle that everything has a cause.

The previous gunshot is not the cause of the subsequent gunshot.  My hypothesis is: the engagement in certain activities makes one more likely to become the recipient of a gunshot wound.  Continuing to engage in those activities makes one 21 times more likely to receive a second gunshot wound.

Without correlation between the original circumstance and the second instance, we have junk science.
Title: Re: Flawed logic by researcher/professor
Post by: Pond Scum on April 19, 2016, 08:01:14 AM
Quote from: linux203 on April 18, 2016, 07:49:20 PM

The previous gunshot is not the cause of the subsequent gunshot.  My hypothesis is: the engagement in certain activities makes one more likely to become the recipient of a gunshot wound.  Continuing to engage in those activities makes one 21 times more likely to receive a second gunshot wound.

Without correlation between the original circumstance and the second instance, we have junk science.

My momma told me not to hang out with bad people or in bad places.  Don't need science or public grants.... just common sense and wisdom. 
Title: Re: Flawed logic by researcher/professor
Post by: part deux on April 19, 2016, 10:34:34 AM
Quote from: Pond Scum on April 19, 2016, 08:01:14 AM
My momma told me not to hang out with bad people or in bad places.  Don't need science or public grants.... just common sense and wisdom.
Can't justify Govt Grant Money using common sense and wisdom...
Title: Re: Flawed logic by researcher/professor
Post by: Pond Scum on April 19, 2016, 01:00:16 PM
Quote from: part deux on April 19, 2016, 10:34:34 AM
Can't justify Govt Grant Money using common sense and wisdom...

Oh yeah.  I guess I wasn't using my head on that one.  Sigh.